“Criminals who will overtake the country” – who in Latvian politics is stoking fear of immigrants?
With parliament elections approaching, populist politicians and their supporters are increasingly fanning hatred against arrivals from third countries.
As the holy Muslim month of Ramadan came to an end, a collective prayer was held in Pļavnieki neighborhood in Riga. Although the event had been authorized, there was not enough room indoors, so several dozen people prayed on the pavement. The event caused an uproar on social media, prompting the involvement of the police and the State Security Service. Some politicians declared that “this is only the beginning” and “a turning point for Latvia.”
According to Inta Mieriņa, director of the University of Latvia’s Centre for Diaspora and Migration Research, in recent years, Latvians’ attitudes toward immigrants from certain third countries have grown more negative. This is especially true of Indians and Pakistanis. “It is a bubble created by social media that has swept over us in recent years. Certain politicians have used it for their own interests, to boost their popularity,” she told Re:Check.
“Although each country has its own nuances, political actors tend to spread similar anti-immigration messages about rising crime, threats to culture, economic burden, and competition in the labor market,” says Marlou Schrover, emeritus professor at Leiden University in the Netherlands and an expert on immigration. Re:Check increasingly sees nearly all of these themes in the rhetoric of some Latvian parties as well.
“Immigrants will take over Latvia”
There are not many third-country nationals in Latvia. Excluding Russian, Belarusian, and Ukrainian citizens, there are just 27,000 of them, which constitutes 1.4% of Latvia’s population. The largest ethnic groups are Uzbeks and Indians. Despite their low numbers, public discourse regularly features claims that they will overtake the country and replace Latvian culture.
This message is mostly driven by individual politicians from the political party National Alliance (Nacionālā apvienība). One of them is MP Jānis Dombrava, who last year became chair of a self-initiated parliamentary inquiry commission regarding immigration. In recent months, the largest share of his posts on X are about third-country nationals. Dombrava regularly warns of mass immigration and a “massive invasion of other peoples and cultures.”
Dombrava’s fellow party member Edvards Ratnieks has repeatedly said Latvia risks becoming “a place besieged by migrants” and a “migrant state.” As Riga’s vice mayor responsible for security, he promises regular raids in city streets and a fight “against both legal and illegal immigration.”
Their views are echoed by Ainārs Šlesers, leader of the populist party Latvia First. Šlesers has by far the largest social media following among Latvian politicians. He claims that “Latvia is being flooded by migrants from third-world countries who speak neither Latvian, nor Russian.” At the same time, particularly in interviews given in Russian, he promises to revive the residence permit program in order to invite people “from other countries of the world who want to live in Europe”.
Preventing immigration as a matter of national survival is also the line taken by political newcomer and theater director Alvis Hermanis.
Claims that immigrants will destroy Latvia and its culture often circulate on X, where far-right ideologues have become increasingly visible ever since billionaire Elon Musk took over the platform. Some people, such as former MP Jānis Iesalnieks from the National Alliance, go even further – for him, immigration means “the end of Western civilization.”
These messages coincide with the Great Replacement theory. Its adherents baselessly believe that someone – secret elites, Jews, “globalists” – is trying to replace the white populations of Western countries with third-country nationals. In Latvia, this conspiracy theory has been spread by MP Mārcis Jencītis (Latvia First), vaccine skeptic Kristīna Duņeca, and disinformation super-spreader Aivis Vasiļevskis, who has previously been convicted of justifying Russian war crimes.
“Immigrants increase crime”
Last year, ahead of the municipal elections, Riga Vice Mayor Ratnieks claimed that because of immigration, Riga residents were supposedly deeply concerned about safety in the streets – although polls did not support that.
Ratnieks and his colleague – city council and party member Liāna Langa – reposted State Police data on crimes committed by third-country nationals and called it “frightening statistics.” There was no reason to do so.
Meanwhile, Dombrava called to halt all immigration from third countries in order to preserve national security and prevent sex crimes.
Over the past year, another political party has joined the effort to scare voters with immigrants – the Union of Greens and Farmers. Unlike other anti-immigration actors, they are currently part of the government.
According to a survey by the University of Latvia’s Institute of Philosophy and Sociology, in 2021, 42% of Latvia’s population believed that immigrants increase crime and terrorism threats. While a survey of 800 Riga residents last year showed that more than half were worried that immigrants could lead to an increase in crime.
Immigrant crime is influenced by economic conditions, immigrants’ age, integration programs, job opportunities, and inequality. Some studies, both on the broader West and individual countries such as Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States, have shown that immigrants do not significantly increase crime. For example, in Germany it was found that the rise in the number of migrants between 2008 and 2019 did not increase crime. Up to 2015, most immigrants to Germany came from Eastern Europe, and as a result, crime slightly rose. Later, when immigration from the Middle East increased much more sharply, crime did not rise and even slightly declined.
Research also shows that in Sweden, which is often cited as a frightening example, the correlation between immigration and increased crime rates is small. There are, however, exceptions, such as rape and shootings, where immigrants and their descendants are over-represented.
The narrative of “the criminal immigrant” doesn’t fit with reality in Latvia. Re:Check found that immigrants are suspected of crimes 2.4 times less often than Latvian citizens.
In Latvia, Indians are often mentioned in connection with crime, even though police statistics on last year’s suspects show that their crime rate is strikingly low. Riga city council member and misinformation spreader Rūdolfs Brēmanis (Alliance of New Latvians) has, without any evidence, spoken of an “Indian mafia” allegedly protected by police, as well as Indian brothels where women from other countries are supposedly enslaved. Brēmanis has even called for hunting immigrants. In a video viewed more than 650,000 times on Facebook, he claims that he chased away a food courier of African origin who had verbally attacked staff at Lulu Pizza (Lulu Pizza denied that this had happened).
The media amplifies fear
“When there is a belief that society strongly opposes immigration from third countries, the media will also be more willing to publish such stories, further fueling hostility toward newcomers,” Mieriņa explains. She says that as part of the WICE project, she searched Latvian media for coverage of immigrants and refugees – finding articles favorable toward immigrants from third countries was almost impossible. The only exceptions are Ukrainians, to whom Latvians feel closer.
Immigrants are often portrayed negatively by clickbait websites such as LA.lv and NRA, but other websites also share this narrative.
Researcher Mieriņa points out that Latvian outlets rely on stories about crimes committed by immigrants abroad. Latvia is not unique in this regard – a similar trend exists for example in Hungary. Re:Check has found that such information is often exaggerated, distorted, and stripped of context.
Immigration expert Schrover told Re:Check that since Donald Trump came to power, Western media has more frequently platformed xenophobes and racists and have become more open to spreading their views. “Because of Trump, we are seeing the normalization of [xenophobia], and the media also plays a role by giving a voice to people whose statements resemble Trump’s rhetoric.”
“No one’s guarding the gate”
Similar to other countries, populists try to attract voters with loud slogans claiming that those in power are doing nothing, including when it comes to immigration.
In January, in a particularly popular video, National Alliance member Ivars Zariņš claimed that “we absolutely do not filter” what kind of people arrive from India, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan, and that we have no idea what they are doing here. His party members Ratnieks and Dombrava also speak of “uncontrolled migration.” This isn’t true. Re:Check has written in detail about how residence permit applications are assessed and how authorities monitor immigrant activities (here).
When there is nothing else – overt racism
While some politicians criticize migration policy, others build political capital through overt racism.
In April last year, Agriculture Minister Armands Krauze (Union of Greens and Farmers) speculated without any basis that a surge in E. coli infections in kindergartens and schools may have been caused by food couriers from third countries. Krauze had no evidence, and the Centre for Disease Prevention and Control did not even consider that source could be couriers.
Riga city council member Rūdolfs Brēmanis makes racist statements particularly often. Last year, in a video viewed half a million times across social media, he said that Indians relieve themselves in the streets of central Riga and leave excrement streaks on walls. He claimed Indian dwellings stink and are supposedly full of pests.
Latvia follows others’ example
Almost every populist right-wing or far-right party in the EU focuses heavily on immigration. Latvian parties do not stand out, and their rhetoric is similar to that used in other countries.
According to a political researcher at the University of Western Macedonia, among the most successful in exploiting fear are Alternative for Germany, Sweden Democrats, and Italy’s Lega Nord. Alternative for Germany has mainly focused on threats to the country’s culture. At the same timethe Sweden Democrats have emphasized the difficulty of integrating third-country nationals and the burden they cause on the welfare system. Claims about immigrants’ supposedly disproportionate benefits and other support are also becoming a salient message in Latvia.
As parliamentary elections draw closer, fear-mongering about immigrants is likely to grow louder. The tactic attracts and influences voters. As concluded in a Stanford University study on European countries, people’s attitudes toward immigrants usually worsen ahead of elections, and the main reason is the rhetoric of political parties.
INDEPENDENT JOURNALISM NEEDS INDEPENDENT FINANCING If you like our work, support us! LV38RIKO0001060112712
